Off Track: how the International Energy Agency guides energy decisions towards fossil fuel dependence and climate change
Through its energy forecasts, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has been guiding governments towards energy decisions that are inconsistent with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement, new research has found.
The IEA’s “New Policy Scenario (NPS)” is commonly used as a roadmap for energy policies and investments, and sees increasing consumption of oil, gas and coal. A new report by Oil Change International and the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) finds that: The NPS implies burning an amount of fossil fuels that would exhaust the carbon budget for the 1.5°C target by 2022, and for a 2°C limit by 2034.
Of the NPS’ recommended upstream oil and gas investment, between 78 and 96 percent – US$ 11.2 to 13.8 trillion over 2018-40 – is incompatible with the Paris goals.