Monsoon 2014: a report
This report discusses operational monitoring and forecasting aspects of the 2014 southwest monsoon. Analysis of various monsoon features, such as progress of the monsoon, semi-permanent and transient weather systems, rainfall distribution etc. have been presented. Potential regional and global climate anomaly patterns responsible for the observed rainfall features have been highlighted. The operational forecasts at various scales issued by IMD and their verification have also been discussed. The season rainfal over the country as a whole was deficient due to large deficiency in rainfall during June and first half of July. This was caused by border line El Niňo and negative Indian Ocean dipole conditions prevailed prior and early part of the monsoon season. The season also witnessed strong intra seasonal variation with a long spell of monsoon break in the middle of August caused by unfavorable phases of MJO and active monsoon spells during middle of July, early part of August and first half of September due to passage of low pressure systems along the monsoon trough region. The deficient monsoon and its intra-seasonal variability had an adverse impact on the productivity and production of major kharif crops over the country except rice.