The impact of the African Swine Fever outbreak in China on global agricultural markets

In China, the outbreak of the African Swine Fever is expected to result in a 27% drop in the production of pigmeat, the country’s most consumed meat product. Using the OECD-FAO Aglink-Cosimo model, this paper examines the impact of this production shortfall on global markets for livestock products and animal feed over the short and the medium term. In particular, it compares outcomes if the changes induced by the ASF outbreak in China are temporary with outcomes that could result if current changes lead to a restructuring of Chinese protein demand.