Electric vehicles: the catalyst to further decarbonisation

This report looks exclusively at potential oil demand displacement from electric vehicles (EVs) and finds: EVs alone could cause peak oil demand by the late 2020’s – with annual marginal growth in oil demand (IEA New Policies Scenario) entirely offset by EVs as early as 2027. The size of the global EV fleet is the most significant variable determining the potential displacement of oil demand. Base case assumptions in our model mean 1million barrels per day of oil is displaced for each 60 million EVs in 2030. Strongly growing annual mileage per EV due to shared mobility services and other trends mean 1 million barrels per day of oil demand could be displaced by just 48.9 million EVs, all other things remaining equal. Alternatively, if the fuel economy of the remaining internal combustion engine (ICE) fleet improves in a 2°C-compliant scenario 1 million barrels per day of oil is displaced for each 82.5 million EVs, all other things remaining equal.