El Niño / La Niña update: November 2018

There is a 75-80% chance of an El Niño developing by February 2019, although it is not expected to be a strong event, according to the latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Sea surface temperatures are already at weak El Niño levels in part of the tropical Pacific, although the corresponding atmospheric patterns have not yet materialized. WMO accompanied the El Niño Update with a global seasonal climate update, which indicated that precipitation patterns predicted for December-February resemble those normally associated with El Niño. In some regions the precipitation response has been weak, however, or not in keeping with those typically associated with El Niño.