Carbon supply cost curves: evaluating financial risks to coal capital expenditures

New research by the Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) identifies major financial risks for investors in coal producers around the world, from the domino effect of slowing demand growth in China, where thermal coal demand could peak as early as 2016. CTI’s latest analysis highlights $112billion of future coal mine expansion and development that is excess to requirements under lower demand forecasts. In particular it shows that high cost new mines are not economic at today’s prices and are unlikely to generate returns for investors in the future. Companies most exposed to low coal demand are those developing new projects, focused on the export market.