Climate and the timing of Imported cases as determinants of the dengue outbreak in Guangzhou, 2014: Evidence from a mathematical model

As the world’s fastest spreading vector-borne disease, dengue was estimated to infect more than 390 million people in 2010, a 30-fold increase in the past half century. Although considered to be a non-endemic country, mainland China had 55,114 reported dengue cases from 2005 to 2014, of which 47,056 occurred in 2014. Furthermore, 94% of the indigenous cases in this time period were reported in Guangdong Province, 83% of which were in Guangzhou City. In order to determine the possible determinants of the unprecedented outbreak in 2014, a population-based deterministic model was developed to describe dengue transmission dynamics in Guangzhou.

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