Tracking intended nationally determined contributions: what are the implications for greenhouse gas emissions in 2030?

Countries agreed at the 20th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP20) in Lima, Peru, in December 2014 to set out their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) during the first quarter of 2015, ahead of COP21 in Paris, France, in December 2015. As of 20 July 2015, 46 countries, including the 28 Member States of the European Union, have submitted INDCs to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This policy paper considers whether the INDCs submitted so far are consistent with the 2°C limit. It finds that, whilst the INDCs represent progress compared with a ‘business as usual’ global emissions pathway, there is a gap between current ambitions and the actions that need to be taken to limit a rise in global average temperature to no more than 2°C above pre-industrial level.