Real-time quantitative rainfall forecasts at hobli-level over Karnataka: evaluation for the winter monsoon 2010

Advance and accurate forecasts of rainfall can aid many sectors, from agriculture to disaster mitigation. However, given the tremendous spatial variability of rainfall, only forecasts at high resolution can serve users’ needs. The skill of a dynamical forecast model depends on the resolution and varies from region to region. While such non-uniqueness poses challenges, they also provide avenues for improving skill; in particular, calibration and customization can improve
region-specific skill. Here, we present evaluation of rainfall forecast at hobli-level (a cluster of adjoining villages with average area of the order of 10 square kilometers) over Karnataka for the north-east monsoon (October–December) season of 2010, operationally implemented through collaboration between CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (C-MMACS) and Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC) for interactive evaluation.