The short-term impacts of COVID-19 on the Malawian economy, 2020–2021: A SAM multiplier modeling analysis

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This paper has been written for the 2020 ECAMA Lakeshore Conference. It extends and updates the initial results of modeling undertaken by IFPRI to assess the short-run impacts of COVID-19 control measures on the Malawian economy. Also consider the short-run effects of external shocks associated with disruptions in trade and tourism, investment, and remittance flows on the Malawian economy, as well as two medium- term paths assuming either faster or slower recovery during the remainder of 2020 and 2021. Using a SAM multiplier model, we estimate GDP declines by around 16.5 percent during April/May 2020 due to social distancing measures. This leads to around 1.6 million people, mainly in rural areas, temporarily falling into poverty, although urban households suffer the largest income losses.

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http://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/134160/filename/134371.pdf
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Publication Date: 
01/11/2020
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